Let the race to the Sprint Cup Chase begin

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/22/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June 27. Race: Lenox Industrial Tools 301. Site: New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Track: 1.058-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 301. Miles: 318.458. 2009 winner: Joey Logano. Television: TNT. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

So much for his so-called season slump. Jimmie Johnson's recent downslide came to an end last Sunday at the Infineon Raceway road course in Northern California. The four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion finally notched his first road course win in 17 attempts.

Johnson began the season by winning three of the first five races, but within the past two months, he had fallen as far back as seventh in points after finishing 31st at Talladega, 36th at Darlington and 37th at Charlotte. Since Charlotte, Johnson has finished no worse than sixth, including a win at Sonoma, which has moved him up to second in the standings.

Denny Hamlin leads the series with five victories so far, while Johnson is next in line with four.

"At the beginning of the year, we were clicking them off," Johnson said. "Right now, Denny has been clicking them off. All that said, it's a long time until September."

The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race at Richmond will enter the championship Chase in the first seed. All 12 drivers who qualify for the playoffs -- the last 10 events of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the 26-event regular season.

This weekend's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire kicks off the "Race to the Chase," a 10-race stretch that precedes the Sprint Cup playoffs. So the scramble is on for many drivers to the secure a top-12 spot before the series returns to New Hampshire for the first Chase race on September 19.

Carl Edwards currently holds the coveted 12th position, but NASCAR fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. lurks behind in the 13th spot, as he trails Edwards by 57 points. Earnhardt Jr. has finished seventh and 11th in the last two races.

Edwards dropped two positions in points after a 29th-place run at Sonoma.

"We're trying to just lock ourselves into the Chase," Edwards said. "If we were farther up in points, we wouldn't be thinking about that, but the farther back you are, the more you think about it, and the earlier you think about it."

Heading into New Hampshire, 240 points separate ninth-place Greg Biffle from 20th-place Juan Pablo Montoya.

Biffle has performed well at the flat one-mile track in the past, with a victory here in September 2008. He finished ninth and 18th last year at New Hampshire.

"I think it's a good race track, and we're capable of finishing in the top-10 there or repeating our win from a few years ago," Biffle said. "That definitely could be in the cards."

Kevin Harvick enters New Hampshire with a 140-point lead over Johnson. Harvick has been consistent so far this season, recording 11 top-10 finishes in the first 16 races.

"We're fortunate to be where we are at in the points right now," Harvick said. "We're able to race hard every lap and really not have to worry about what's going on with the points."

Harvick is looking to improve at New Hampshire this time around. He finished 32nd and 34th here last year.

Joey Logano is the defending race winner. One year ago, Logano, in his rookie season, benefited from crew chief Greg Zipadelli's gutsy late-race pit strategy for his first Sprint Cup win in the rain-shortened race at New Hampshire.

Logano, who hails from Middletown, CT, overcame a one-lap deficit after cutting his left-rear tire in the late-stages of the race. He was the only driver who had yet to pit during the final round of green flag stops. Ryan Newman gave up the lead when he ran out of fuel and coasted into in the pits. That allowed Logano to take the top spot for the first time. He then conserved enough fuel before rain fell on the track.

NASCAR displayed the red flag 28 laps short of the 301-lap scheduled distance, with the race being called shortly after. Logano's first win came in his 20th start.

"It's a big deal for me to go back there," Logano said. "It's basically my home racetrack. I grew up a couple of hours away from there, well, about three hours...It was a cool place to get your first win."

Logano is currently 17th in points.

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301.

Casino--casino--casino Autoracing Betting News

<< Argentina tops Greece to cap perfect group stage
Polokwane, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Demichelis and Martin Palermo scored late in the second half, helping Argentina complete a perfect run through Group B of the FIFA World Cup with a 2-0 win over Greece on Tuesday

<< South Korea advances after draw with Nigeria
Durban, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Korea booked a spot in the second round of the FIFA World Cup on Tuesday as it earned a 2-2 draw with Nigeria at Moses Mabhida Stadium in the final Group B contest for both teams. Kalu

<< Carolina signs RW Samson
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Carolina Hurricanes signed right wing Jerome Samson to a two-year, two-way contract on Tuesday. The 22-year-old led the Albany River Rats, Carolina's AHL affiliate, and was tied for second in the AH

<< Lakers' Bynum to have more surgery next month
Los Angeles, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lakers center Andrew Bynum indicated Tuesday he will undergo surgery in mid-July to repair a small tear in his right knee. The 22-year-old hyperextended the knee in Game 6 of the Western Con

<< Danica-mania returns to Nationwide at New Hampshire
Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, June 26. Race: New England 200. Site: New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Track: 1.058- mile oval. Start time: 3:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 211.6. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch.

Ravens, Hamlin agree to deal >>
Owings Mills, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Ravens signed safety Ken Hamlin to a one-year deal on Tuesday. Hamlin was released by the Dallas Cowboys in April. The 29-year-old veteran will provide Baltimore with depth at the pos

Serena, Wozniacki, Sharapova roll; Stosur exits Wimbledon >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serena Williams began her quest for a fourth Wimbledon title with an easy straight-set win over Portugal's Michelle Larcher De Brito, while third-seeded Caroline Wozniacki and former champion Maria

NHL raises salary cap for 2010-11 season, extends CBA >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Hockey League on Tuesday announced a salary cap increase of five percent for the 2010-11 season, while also announcing the extension of the current collective bargaining agreement. The

Alouettes sign former UNH quarterback Santos >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Walter Payton Award winner Ricky Santos signed a contract Tuesday with the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL. Santos, the former University of New Hampshire quarterback who was named the FCS' outstanding

Astros tweak roster, call up Castro >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have recalled top prospect Jason Castro, one of six transactions the club made on Tuesday. Castro, a catcher the Astros selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft, had his c

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.